Construction faces $2.5 trillion loss globally as uncertainty spreads
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A new report warns that global construction activity could fall short of projections by $2.5 trillion this year due to persistent uncertainty in project delivery. The research, published by cost and project management firm Currie & Brown, highlights how volatility is undermining confidence across a sector that is fundamental to global economic growth.
The report surveyed more than 1,000 construction decision-makers managing pipelines worth an average of $12.9 billion. These leaders reported that 13.7 percent of their annual pipeline value had been lost to uncertainty over the past year. That amounts to more than $2 billion per organisation, a figure large enough to fund entire hospital networks or education systems in many developed economies.
Cost volatility and delivery risk
Material cost inflation, energy price swings, supply chain disruption and labour shortages were named as the most significant drivers of unpredictability. Respondents indicated that 61 percent expect material costs to worsen over the next two years, while more than half anticipate continued instability in energy pricing.
These pressures are already affecting project delivery. One-third of construction leaders said they had descoped projects, 29 percent reported delays and a quarter said projects had been cancelled entirely. Only 20 percent of decision-makers said they felt fully confident in keeping projects within budget under current conditions.
The study shows that this uncertainty has become a core operational challenge. Unlike cyclical market trends, current disruptions appear embedded and continuous, making it harder to forecast risk and manage expectations.
Systemic pressures and cultural challenges
While external factors are part of the picture, the report suggests internal inefficiencies are compounding the problem. Dr Alan Manuel, Currie & Brown’s group chief executive, noted that outdated procurement models, incomplete designs at contract stage and misaligned project goals are deepening exposure to risk.
The culture of accepting large-scale builds without full design clarity, he said, has become a norm that leaves organisations open to repeated shocks. Managing weather events, geopolitical instability and price shifts is difficult enough. Doing so with fragmented teams and outdated systems further limits resilience.
For many in the industry, the report validates concerns that have grown since the pandemic. What was once temporary volatility is becoming structural, forcing a reassessment of how the sector plans, procures and delivers work globally.
The industry response and path forward
To help bring focus to this challenge, Currie & Brown is launching the Construction Certainty Index. This new benchmark will track forward-looking confidence and risk levels across markets, providing companies with a way to gauge their position and plan more proactively.
The report identifies four areas as essential to improving performance. These include smarter use of technology, prioritising high-quality data, strategic workforce planning and an adaptive mindset focused on risk management. These areas are presented not as separate fixes but as interlinked components that must evolve together.
Critically, the report notes that these changes cannot be achieved by contractors and consultants alone. A collaborative approach involving clients, governments and suppliers is required to address the complexity of modern construction risk. Without that alignment, fragmentation will continue to hinder progress and escalate cost.
The findings arrive at a moment when construction is expected to play a central role in delivering housing, infrastructure and energy transition projects. If current uncertainty continues unchecked, the gap between policy ambitions and project reality may widen.
The scale of potential disruption now measured in trillions makes clear that the future of global construction depends not just on what is built, but on how the sector builds resilience into every stage of the process.
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